Top 10 Centers Heading Into 2022–2023 NBA Season
The final installment!
10. Nikola Vučević
Don’t let Nikola Vučević’s 11 RPG mislead you, he is not a prototypical paint hermit. He won’t bully opposing big men for the ball, but he’ll certainly be there to catch it when the opportunity arrives. Instead, he has become an asset to the Chicago Bulls in implementing the growing abundance of spacing that is associated with modern offenses. Although the Swiss center has been struggling with his offensive efficiency, he has proven that he can fulfill the dynamic role of what I call a “stretch-center”, a big-man who can roam along the three-point line, as well as the lower color-blocking. With the scarcity of formidable starting-caliber centers in the league, Vučević’s serviceable level of play earns him this spot.
9. Jusuf Nurkic
Just as Vučević did, Jusuf Nurkic has adapted to the times. Nurkic perimeter and mid-range shooting has grown to account for 35% of his total shots, emphasizing his growing shooting versatility. This gives a safe alternative for when he decides against utilizing his elite ability to create space off of rolling to the basket, of which he accounted for 43% of the Portland Trail Blazers’ total pick-and-roll buckets. Although Nurkic’s ability to deter shots from near the rim has diminished, his relentless rebounding ability should still keep the opposition on their toes within the paint.
8. Jonas Valančiūnas
Jonas Valančiūnas’ stats are quite indicative of his impact for the New Orleans Pelicans. Last season, the Lithuanian center averaged 17.8 PPG and 11.4 RPG, and while he isn’t a dominant offensive force in the paint, he has certainly honed his mid-range game. Relative to his position, Valančiūnas ranks in the 87th percentile among big men for mid-range shooting efficiency. Most people know him for his elite defensive rebounding though, as he accounted for 27% of the Pelicans’ total rebounds off of field goals last season, placing him in the 93rd percentile. Few non-all-stars throughout history have put up comparable numbers the Valančiūnas, so if he meshes well with Zion Williamson, such an accolade could be in the cards for him.
7. Domantas Sabonis
Domantas Sabonis is basically Valančiūnas’-2.0 with added playmaking. Sabonis is a vacuum in the paint, as he contributed to 28.6% of his team’s total defensive rebounds off of opposition field goals. On top of this though, he averages 13.8 assists per 75 possessions. His playmaking was surely inherited from his father, Arvydas Sabonis, and similar to his dad, his reflexes have made him more selective with his attempts, as he kicks out the ball on 42.6% of his drives. With a player efficiency rating (PER) of 21.9, Sabonis ranks 18th among all players and 9th among centers, emphasizing his uber-productivity.
6. Jarrett Allen
While most centers on this list could probably thrive on most teams, Jarrett Allen is fundamentally essential to the Cavaliers’ structure, putting more weight on him than he’d probably receive on other rosters. Evan Mobley and Allen serve almost like puppets on the strings of Darius Garland’s ball-handling, and Allen particularly excels in this role. Allen is constantly on the move, looking for open lanes to cut to the basket for a quick alley-oop, as depicted by his 100th percentile rate of 36% of his half-court possessions being derived from such actions. Allen also consistently comes hot off of screens to get in high-percentage positions, as supported by 78.5% adjusted field goal percentage at the rim. It is easy to diminish Allen as a product of his system, but he is truly as vital to Cleveland as anybody else on the roster.
5. Deandre Ayton
Deandre Ayton brewed up turmoil this off-season by demanding a max-contract that Phoenix seemed unwilling to provide. Thus, the Bahamian big-man seemed destined for a sign-and-trade, but ultimately resigned with his incumbent squad on a substantially sufficient deal. Ayton has still not developed into becoming the superstar that #1 picks are commonly predicted to become, but at 24-years-old, he still has time. Ayton’s post-game is severely lacking, but his mid-range game is mostly unparalleled by those of his position. Ranking in the 99th percentile for mid-range shooting efficiency among centers, Ayton’s offensive arsenal has room for improvement, but is still considerably mature. Ayton maturation has also continued on the other side of the ball, as he managed a career-high DRtg of 105 last season. A maximum deal might have been a little far-fetched for the former Arizona Wildcat, but he could surely reach that potential.
4. Bam Adebayo
The notion for this upcoming season was that Bam Adebayo would finally return to his natural spot at the 4, but with no real additions to the Miami Heat roster, Bam will certainly reprise his previous role as their starting center. Bam fits the mold of dynamic big-men like Nikola Jokic, giants who can rebound and then safely bring the ball down the court. Bam’s career-high usage percentage of 25% last year only reaffirms his increased role on the squad, and his playmaking does the same for his attributed versatility. In 43 of Bam’s 57 games last season, he contributed 15% or more of the Heat’s total assists. To have someone who can run the floor, rebound, shoot off the dribble, post-up and more is critical, and Bam checks all of those boxes.
3. Rudy Gobert
We all know that Rudy Gobert is a generational defensive talent, and the stats back that claim up. When Gobert was on the floor last season, the Jazz’s opponents saw their ORtg decrease by 7 whole points. Gobert is also a hall-of-fame intimidator, as his matchups shoot over 13% less efficiently near the rim when the French center is parallel to them. It was commonly publicized how little Donovan Mitchell passed to Gobert towards the end of their Utah experiment together, regardless, the Jazz saw a 5.9% increase in assist frequency when he was on the court. Even though Gobert’s interior offense is not as potent as the others on this list, his objectively domineering stature should serve this deficiency well if he finds the ball in his hands more in Minnesota.
2. Joel Embiid
If Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic didn’t exist, Joel Embiid might very well have 3 MVPs under his belt. Embiid led the league last season for PPG and he ranked 9th for DRtg, 3rd for Box Plus/Minus, 3rd for Win Shares and 5th for RPG. Embiid’s impact is undeniable. For lack of more descriptive articulation, Embiid could hypothetically be handed the ball in the post every possession, and almost always end up scoring. Not only is this because of his masterful isolation game, but also his ability to lure fouls his way, with almost 26% of his possessions in the paint resulting in a trip to the charity stripe. Embiid towers over most of his opposition which has led him to consistently be able to contest shots down low, as he contests about 46% of them (96th percentile) and he averages over 2 BPG per 100 possessions. Embiid is just as physically dominant as centers of the past, but with the perfect additional nuances of the modern game.
1. Nikola Jokic
The expression of “carrying a team” is often tossed around loosely towards players who often shoulder a considerable burden for their squad, regardless of the circumstances that precede it. Nikola Jokic had already lost Jamal Murray to injury before the ‘21-’22 season had even begun, but he had Michael Porter Jr., the same man who Denver had just handed a 5-year/$180m extension. Alas, 9 games into 2021, Porter Jr. started developing back issues that ultimately required season-ending surgery. So, Jokic, for lack of better words, was tasked with carrying his squad. Jokic did barely grace the top-10 for usage percentage, but the efficiency of his time on the court was emphasized by other quantitative statistics. Such stats include his league-leading amount of win-shares, box plus/minus, total rebounds, PER and VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). Oh, so he was only offensively valuable because he scored a lot with the ball constantly being handed to him, right? Nope, at 7.9 APG, Jokic ranks in the 98th percentile for playmaking at his position. Jokic gets a lot of criticism for his lack of shot-stopping prowess, but he still manages to constantly stay in front of the ball with 48.8% of his matchups’ close-range shots being contested by the Serbian center. Jokic did have a decent supporting cast that consisted of Monte Morris, Aaron Gordon, Will Barton and others, but let’s be real, the Nuggets would have barely scraped the play-in spots without the double-MVP.