Top 10 Power Forwards Heading Into 2022–2023 NBA Season

From recent rookies to MVP candidates, this list is diverse!

10. Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes made his presence known on both sides of the ball in just his rookie year. Barnes’s nimble but lanky frame has made him one of the most dynamic defenders in the NBA, as he has spent an equal amount of time guarding every position during games. He is also a monster at contesting shots because of his Mr. Fantastic arms, as depicted by his ability to contest over 36% of shots near the rim. Barnes’ playmaking has not fully developed yet, as he sometimes recklessly drives into the paint without a backup plan, but he still managed 15.3 PPG on 49.2% shooting from the field, even without a 3-point shot.

9. Kristaps Porzingis

Kristaps Porzingis is an absolute mess when he tries to handle the ball, as he turns over the ball on 20% of all of his isolation attempts, but his base numbers indicate that with good health, he can still be a great 2nd or 3rd option on a team. Porzingis’ offensive efficiency ballooned from an ORtg of 113 to 122 after being traded from the Dallas Mavericks to the Washington Wizards. This was thanks to an increase of his 3-point shooting percentage from 28.3% to 36.7%, as well as a field goal percentage boost from 45.1% to 47.5%. Even though Porzingis’ sample size in Washington was minimal, but his total regular season output, regarding interior defense and post-offense, was still fantastic for someone that many analysts have discounted for years now.

8. Jaren Jackson Jr.

Although Jaren Jackson Jr.’s offensive and defensive efficiency has remained relatively the same, Memphis Grizzlies fans should be ecstatic about his newfound health. After finally getting a season-long sample-size to review, Jackson Jr. has established himself as an elite interior defender. JJJ blocks an outstanding 44.14% of interior shots that he contests, in addition to the fact that his matchups’ field-goal percentages decrease by 13.71% when he is guarding them in the paint. Jackson Jr. still has a relatively sub-par offensive game, but he manages to get to the line a lot for how infrequently he drives to the basket, which is a positive sign of appropriate aggression. Jackson Jr. had arguably the worst offensive season of his career, but his defense has been critical enough to earn him this spot.

7. Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley is similarly adept in the paint as Jaren Jackson Jr., but has a safer offensive game to back it up. Mobley contests close-range shots about 40% of the times that they are attempted against him (per 75 possessions), which holds the opposition to a field goal percentage that is 7.22% below average. Mobley can protect the paint, but he can also dominate it, as demonstrated by making 72.9% of his shots near the basket. Mobley also perfectly complements Darius Garland’s facilitation, as he accounts for 37% of all team possessions initiated by cutting to the baseline. As Mobley’s post-game develops, so will his role.

6. Draymond Green

Draymond Green remains to be one of the most puzzling players to evaluate in the history of the NBA. He is truly the kind of player that advanced analytics were meant for, as his base stats simply don’t do him justice. Just to name a few nerdy stats that support his greatness: 21.2 assists per 75 possessions (98th percentile), 1.7 steals per 75 possessions (94th percentile), and a D-LEBRON (defensive impact rating) of +3.5 (100th percentile). No, Draymond cannot really score, but why would he need to on a team like the Warriors, especially after they have won 4 championships with him fulfilling this role. Draymond Green fits in the Golden State system better than any other player fits in their respective team’s.

5. Pascal Siakam

Following fellow Most Improved Player Brandon Ingram, Pascal Siakam’s 2019–2020 campaign has been largely forgotten. While this can be attributed to the Toronto Raptors’ extensive depth overshadowing possible star-power, Siakam’s production has remained pretty much the same. Actually, this past season was probably the best season of his career. In comparison to Siakam’s Most Improved campaign, his ORtg has shot up by 9 points, in addition to his growing ability to play-make and crash the boards. Siakam’s malleable play-style meshes well into Toronto’s position-less structure. He has effectively become Nick Nurse’s prototype and end-product.

4. Karl Anthony-Towns

Karl Anthony-Towns is one of the most efficient perimeter shooters in the league at almost 7-feet tall. Shooting 45.5% on pull-up treys, and 41% in general, Towns prefers to space out the floor more so than posting-up, but he still backs down into the paint 16% of the time, good enough for ranking in the 87th percentile. Towns is elite at scoring off of screens and rolling off of picks, ranking mostly in the 90s percentile-wise for such relevant stats. His interior defense is serviceable at worst and beneficial at best, and while he is not very aggressive with boxing-out, he still produces a considerable amount of second-chance opportunities from offensive boards.

3. Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis’ shooting splits were abysmal last season, especially from the perimeter, but a lack of consistent health and tentative teammates can certainly contribute to this. Davis produces 5.5 total isolations per 75 possessions, and even though his results from these occurrences have diminished, he is still able to create shots at a fantastic rate. Offense aside, AD blocks 2.3 shots per 75 possessions, putting him in the 95th percentile, and he is able to keep up with movement around the three-point arc as well. Davis shot a career-high 57.1% from anywhere besides the three-point line, so as long as he remains healthy and practices some threes, he should be fine.

2. Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s true rival for being the most dominant offensive paint producer in the NBA. Zion thrives when targeting lonely defenders, as he averages 6.5 total isolations per 75 possessions, of which he turns over the ball at an extremely low degree (23% of isolation possessions). Zion also ranks in the top percentile for creating shots at the rim, almost always unassisted. Having a player like Zion takes the weight off of the point-guard’s shoulders for the Pelicans, which is certainly beneficial for a squad with consistent ball-handling tentativeness. Zion is able to guard the three quite well, but his height difference can sometimes hinder his ability to guard typically-sized players at his position. This being said though, he is still able to bully matchups for offensive boards, as he consistently attempts to create second-chance opportunities. Zion has room to improve while guarding the ball, but if he can at least maintain his insane ORtg of 124, he’ll make an immediate impact for a hopeful New Orleans squad.

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo has the offensive output of Zion Williamson with hall of fame defensive tendencies. Giannis shoots an absurd 80.6% on shots within 3 feet of the basket, and he’s shooting the best of his career from mid-range. Last season was also the Greek Freak’s most offensively efficient season with an career-high ORtg of 124. Enough about his oppressive offense though, his ability to shut down the post is just as impressive. Giannis keeps his matchups shooting an average of almost 10.5% below their regular field goal percentage near the hoop, alongside his impressive base statistic of 1.4 blocks per game. To understand Giannis’ overall impact on the opposition’s scoring production, teams see an increase of 2.1% in eFG% when he’s off the floor, indicating his omnipotent presence on the floor. His impact on the Bucks’ inflates to an extreme degree when he’s in the postseason as well. Even though the Bucks fell short this year, their ORtg rose from 90.7 to 108.6 when he was on the floor last postseason. There aren’t words to describe how immense his value is to Milwaukee, but it makes sense considering that Giannis will go down in history as one of the most complete players in NBA history.