Top 10 Shooting Guards Heading Into 2022–2023 NBA Season
Honorable Mentions: Klay Thompson, Desmond Bane and Anfernee Simons
10. Jordan Poole
Jordan Poole is a great shooting-guard in his own right, but his value is further intensified by how well he fulfills his role for the Golden State Warriors. Poole has followed in the footsteps of the Splash Brothers with his ability to create space for himself around the perimeter, ranking in the 94th percentile for 3-point shot-creation. Similar to his peers, many of Poole’s shots come from his consistent movement around the floor and off of screens in order to break away from his defender. Poole’s playmaking has also improved, as he averages almost 12 assists per 75 possessions even when he primarily focuses on scoring. Poole seems like the more reasonable selection for this list instead of Klay Thompson because of his continuous exponential growth even on a fully-healthy Warriors’ roster.
9. Tyler Herro
As a Miami Heat fan, I was incredibly concerned with Tyler Herro’s minimal growth in his sophomore season, but last season’s 6th Man of the Year campaign settled me down. Herro hit career-high marks in almost every box-score statistic, in addition to having to mostly play alongside a secondary Miami unit which ranked in the bottom percentile for spacing and finishing. Thus, Herro was left to his own devices, relying on his elite ability to catch-and-shoot, as well as profiting from screens. Herro was incredibly disappointing in Miami’s 2022 playoff run, but his progression points to better times ahead.
8. CJ McCollum
Many people do not realize how much better CJ McCollum became when he left the Portland Trail Blazers for the New Orleans Pelicans last season. His PPG went up from 20.5 to 24.3, his field goal and three-point percentages substantially increased and his defense became tighter with a 5-point improvement in DRtg. CJ’s defense and rebounding still was not great, but he is a pure shooting-guard that is implemented in order to bolster an offense. McCollum’s perimeter abilities remain excellent with his ability to generate production off of screens, effectively having individually added about 2 wins for the Pelicans last season based off LEBRON calculations, which ranks in the 90+ percentile. CJ McCollum is easily one of the best trade acquisitions from last year.
7. Anthony Edwards
Anthony Edwards can fly high, posterize defenders, and get back on defense immediately afterwards to get a stop. Edwards’ has generally unparalleled athleticism, and that should set him up for further development in polishing his game. For right now though, these inherent attributes have turned him into a black hole for defenses, attracting the scurrying opposition and opening up about 6 shots per 100 possessions for teammates as a result. Unlike some of the others on this list, Edwards is also considerably proficient at getting to the basket without third-party assistance, as about 86% of his cuts to the basket come unassisted. Edwards is still a generally raw prospect for how advanced he has already, and will surely continue this upwards trend.
6. Bradley Beal
Bradley Beal was another victim of the supposed different regulation NBA ball, and it was definitely substantial. His field goal percentage decreased from 48.5% to 45.1% and his three-point percentage stood at an abysmal 30%. Beal was also taking about 4 less shots per game, lowering his PPG from 31.3 to 23.2. Although Beal struggled from perimeter woes, his finishing and playmaking was still at an All-NBA level. For every 75 possessions, Beal managed about 18 drives to the basket and 16 assists. These are impressive numbers for someone who should be the benefactor, not the catalyst, of an offense. Regardless, last season was such an immense step down that it is necessary to refer back to his prior production for an accurate measure of how he will hopefully continue to perform.
5. James Harden
James Harden’s plan remains the same, but his production has objectively diminished. Harden ranked in the 97th percentile last season for total isolations per 75 possessions with about 7.6. His propensity for challenging defenders has infamously made him a free-throw magnet, with an absurd 9.2% of perimeter shots resulting in three attempts from the charity stripe. Harden’s actual three-point shot percentage is a disappointing 33%, but he has made himself useful in other manners as well. Harden’s dribble-heavy style entices defenders to commit, leaving teammates open at times, which has culminated in the shooting guard producing almost 13 shots per 100 possessions for teammates just off of offensive gravity last season. Harden is also successful on almost 73% of his attempted defensive rebounds, emphasizing his presence in other aspects aside from sheer scoring ability.
4. Zach LaVine
Zach LaVine took an unexpected backseat to Demar DeRozan which understandably decreased his output. As LaVine began to adopt the role as a secondary sniper, he went from taking 68 touches per game to 61.4. LaVine’s off-screen share percentage increased from 32% to 36%, meaning that his off-ball movement developed further as a result of not having the total weight of an offensive unit on his shoulders. LaVine’s defense is still non-existent, but his ability to create his own shots without a playmaker like Lonzo Ball readily available still confirms his value.
3. Jaylen Brown
According to Basketball Index, Jaylen Brown ranks in the 4th percentile for rim shot quality, but shoots about 71.5% once he actually gets to the basket. Brown bombards the paint with unrelenting nature, and it certainly pays off. Brown is also considerably dangerous from the perimeter due to his elite ability to roll off of screens to open up space for a three. This all coincides with his above-average ball movement, and you have a complete offensive makeup. Additionally, shooting guards are often seen as liabilities on defense, but Brown has been able to hold his own when he is normally put on slashing finishers, as he improved his DRtg by 5 points. Brown is a unique stationary shooter who doubles as an offensive paint crasher, making him a certifiable star next to Jayson Tatum.
2. Donovan Mitchell
Say what you will about the fact that Donovan Mitchell averaged only 2.7 passes per game to Rudy Gobert, his playmaking talent still compares among the best in the league. Per 100 passes, Mitchell would have been estimated to account for about 24 assists, in addition to his career-high 5.3 assists per game. Being that Mitchell is responsible for many of his teammates scoring opportunities, he is also more than fully capable of creating his own chances, primarily around the perimeter. Mitchell likes to rely on his isolation game around the three-point line, but unsuspecting defenders may fall victim to his equal tendency to attack from any side of the court, as emphasized by his 51%/49% left/right side isolation tendency. The current state of the Utah Jazz points to a season of extreme ball dominance for Mitchell, but if he is traded to the rumored Knicks this offseason, it would be fascinating to observe how he works alongside another scorer in Jalen Brunson.
1. Devin Booker
As many saw in the Phoenix Suns’ 2021 playoff run, Devin Booker is a lethal catch-and-shooter. His catch-and-shoot three-point percentage stood at 43.6% last season, which greatly contributes to his effective ability to capitalize on chances around the perimeter that come often with Chris Paul as your point guard. While Devin Booker’s base stats do not indicate significant improvements, he accounted for 7.6 win shares last season, as opposed to the prior season’s 4.9 win shares. Combine these advanced stats with his extreme points per possession efficiency and genuinely solid interior defense, and you have the best shooting guard in the league.