Biggest NBA Player Surprises So Far

Some of the best individual storylines this season.

Jerami Grant/Damian Lillard

The Portland Trail Blazers are already 9 wins away from matching their victory total last season with more than half of the season remaining. This could have been easily predicted based on the lack of availability that plagued their entire roster, with only 4 players out of the 27 who received any minutes playing over 50 games. To make matters worse, Lillard was having one of the worst seasons of his career in terms of base stats, as well as general efficiency. Fortunately though, Lillard has returned to normal levels of scoring (27.5 PPG), in addition to a career best in 2P% (53%). The Western Conference is experiencing extreme parity, so while the Blazers barely sit over .500, they’re still in the running for a decent playoff spot. Obviously Simons has continued to progress into his role as a formidable replacement to C.J. McCollum, but the offseason acquisition of Jerami Grant has certainly helped push their offense over occasional humps. Last season, the Blazers averaged 106.2 points per game, but with a healthy roster and Grant returning to fringe-All-Star form, that number has increased to 112.3 PPG.

Killian Hayes

The Detroit Pistons had the talent and opportunity to make a push for at least a Play-In spot this season, but injuries to Cade Cunningham and Marvin Bagley III, as well as an unforeseen Saddiq Bey regression has hampered these aspirations. Before Cunningham was drafted, Killian Hayes was picked 7th in the 2020 NBA Draft as a potential franchise cornerstone, but underperformed to an egregious degree in his first two seasons. The Pistons seem to be throwing in the towel for this campaign already, so the absence of Cunningham has blessed Hayes with a starting role that he definitely did not deserve. Although Hayes remains unacceptably inefficient, he has upped his 3P% by about 6%, as well as a 4-point increase in ORtg. The Pistons should still move on from Hayes when possible, but the former lottery pick has gone from seemingly being out of the league in the near future to potentially becoming a serviceable role-player on another roster.

Anthony Davis (prior to injury)

Did anyone truly expect Anthony Davis to return to All-NBA 1st Team form after the past two seasons of inconsistencies? I didn’t, but that’s what happened before he succumbed to his typical fragility. Davis was a different man this season: shooting his best from three since his first season in Los Angeles, hitting a career high mark in field goal percentage, RPG and ORtg. The Lakers have been statistically better when he’s on the floor, in addition to the fact that he is their only true big-man that can consistently play over 20 minutes per game. It’s a shame that Davis’ body is made of porcelain, but his performances at least indicate that he still has the talent in him that made him the 1st pick in 2012.

Julius Randle

The New York Knicks went from a rising playoff squad in 2020–2021, to an inefficient laughing stock the following season, but now seem to be back in the game. The offseason signing of Jalen Brunson was expectedly crucial to the squad’s potential, but the main concern was Julius Randle’s erratic shot selection in 2021–2022 that produced an abysmal 41% from the field. This year Randle has raised that rate to about 47%, in addition to a considerable increase from the perimeter. Randle lives in the mid-range territory, an area where he shot below 40% from both 3–10 and 10–16 feet last season; but those numbers have also increased by over 10% each. This has turned Randle into a reliable scorer, averaging 23.1 PPG. It is clear that the addition of a true point-guard in Brunson has taken some of the offensive weight off Randle’s shoulders, as his APG has decreased, allowing him to hone his scoring craft further.

Lauri Markkanen

After the Utah Jazz traded away two superstars in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert for a slew of starters, role-players and picks, it was safe to assume that this was the start of a major rebuild. Normally these kinds of moves would entail a tanking of epic proportions, but the Jazz are above .500 and legitimately look like a fringe-playoff team. The team’s roster is composed of score-first players looking to showcase their talents within a careless season, so while they have one of the worst defenses in the league, Lauri Markkanen is largely responsible for their 4th-ranked offense. Markkannen is undoubtedly having the best season of his career in every reviewable department, and his contributions to the Jazz’s performances is extremely apparent. The Jazz’s ORtg decreases by almost 10 points when Markkanen is off the court. Simply put, they are a bad team when he is not playing.

Kyle Kuzma

From supposedly being valued as an essential part of the Washington Wizards to apparently now being expendable in trade talks, Kuzma is going to earn a bag if he keeps up his play. Kuzma has stepped up his scoring by a substantial amount on a team that features two prominent offensive stalwarts in Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal. Kuzma is not only somehow getting more shots off, but making more of them than ever before. He is shooting a career-high 47% from the field, but is also maintaining his increased role as a playmaker with his 3.5 APG. Kuzma has also been more aggressive, as he is on track to hit a career-high in receiving shooting fouls. It’s clear that Kuzma has adapted to the spacing needed on a dynamic offense like the Wizards.