How Would an Expansion NBA Team Made Up of Free Agents Perform?
Unsung heroes or deservedly forgotten?
Many basketball fans around the world are often left puzzled by the exclusions of seemingly valuable players on regular season rosters. It is a sad sight to see former MVP-candidates such as Isaiah Thomas, or former defensive monsters like Hassan Whiteside, fluctuating between being a role-player, or completely out of the league. Some are quick to write off the reasoning of why certain players aren’t signed as part of the evolution of basketball as a sport, as many of the remaining unemployed ballers have seemingly obsolete playing styles. Thomas is obviously an incredible defensive liability due to his inherent size, Whiteside is a traditional paint-dominant center that can’t space the floor, Carmelo Anthony is seen as inefficient, as well as other ongoing rhetoric about certain forgotten players. Then there are players like Lance Stephenson and Montrezl Harrell, who are solid contributors that have personalities that often overshadow their skill. Finally, there are those who have succumbed to uncontrollable injury woes, such as Demarcus Cousins and Blake Griffin, who have become shells of their former star selves. So, what if we threw all these burning stars together on a team and gave a location like Seattle another chance at NBA glory? What seems like a recipe for disaster might be more plausible than expected.
They could have a team in Seattle tomororw just from NBA free agents 😂
PG: Dennis Schroder
SG: Avery Bradley
SF: Carmelo Anthony
PF: Montrezl Harrell
C: Dwight HowardBench:
Rajon Rondo
Blake Griffin
Dennis Smith Jr.
DeMarcus Cousins
Tristan Thompson
Lance Stephenson— Ben Stinar (@BenStinar) September 2, 2022
How did I choose these players?
I took some of the choices from the displayed Tweet above, but after scouring the internet for free agency lists, I decided to also include some players who I feel deserve another chance. Also, the roster mentioned above has no real positional distribution; it is all guards and big-men, so there needed to be genuine depth to make this team feel applicable to comparable NBA rosters.
Final Roster
*Depth chart is in order from top-to-bottom for each position.
PG:
Dennis Schroder
Eric Bledsoe
Isaiah Thomas
SG:
Avery Bradley
Lance Stephenson
Ben McLemore
SF:
Carmelo Anthony
Andre Iguodala
PF:
Montrezl Harrell
LaMarcus Aldridge
Blake Griffin
C:
Hassan Whiteside
Demarcus Cousins
How am I estimating the team’s production?
The main statistic that is informing the team’s overall production (i.e. regular season record, conference seeding, etc.) is LEBRON. LEBRON stands for “Luck-adjusted player estimate using a box prior regularized on-off” according to bball-index.com. So… what does this mean? By taking each player’s box-scores into account, alongside their compared contributions when they’re on/off the court and their production per 100 possessions, LEBRON is supposed to depict a generalized image of a player’s team impact, not their talent. Additionally, to determine a record, I will be using the roster’s combined Win-Shares, which is an estimated amount of contributed victories based off of offensive and defensive production in the context of their playing-time:
*First number is LEBRON rating, second number are win shares contributed.
PG:
Dennis Schroder — -1.71–2.9
Eric Bledsoe — -1.29–1.3
Isaiah Thomas — -0.93–0.2
SG:
Avery Bradley — -4–1.2
Lance Stephenson — -1.53–0.8
Ben McLemore — -3.28–0.8
SF:
Carmelo Anthony — -2–3.6
Andre Iguodala — 1.19–1.6
PF:
Montrezl Harrell — 1.33–7.3
LaMarcus Aldridge — -0.2–3.1
Blake Griffin — -0.23–2.1
C:
Hassan Whiteside — 3.39–5.8
Demarcus Cousins — 1.54–1.6
Average LEBRON rating: -0.59
Total Win Shares — 32.3 = 10.77 wins
The Results
The potential roster at hand holds an average LEBRON rating of -0.59. Having a negative sign in front of the number obviously provides it with a failing connotation, but -0.59 would actually rank 22nd out of every NBA team’s average rating last season. One spot behind Indiana and one spot ahead of the Knicks. Unfortunately, this sees the new expansion team missing the playoffs and play-ins if they were in the Eastern Conference, but they would achieve the final play-in spot in the West. This seems like overachieving for any regular expansion team, as according to this Reddit thread, it takes about 5 seasons before such a new franchise makes the postseason. Unfortunately though, our new dream expansion team’s win-share production heavily supports the notion that newly-added franchises struggle in their inaugural seasons.
In total, the roster accounts for 32.3 win shares. In reality though, win-shares account for ⅓ of a team’s single victory, meaning that the regular season record for our new franchise comes out to a whopping 10.77 wins, or 11 out of generosity. 11–71… the NBA’s worst regular season record of all time was the 2011–2012 Charlotte Bobcats, who went 7–59, good for a 10.6% win percentage. This hypothetical team of NBA outcasts actually don’t stoop to these depths of inferiority, as they manage a win percentage of about 13.4%. Although, they do tie for the 4th worst record of all time, alongside the 1997–1998 Denver Nuggets and the 1992–1993 Dallas Mavericks.
Considering all of the statistics are taken from the 2021–2022 season, where each player received varied minutes and game opportunities, obviously sample sizes range from unrealistically minimal to realistic. So, even though this could be their potential record, it could obviously be off by a couple wins or even losses, but I believe it is generally safe to believe that they’d rank among the bottom of the league.
Interesting Stats
The roster’s starting lineup, based off of win-shares, are illustrated by the charts above, regarding their offensive and defensive production percentile rankings from last season. In analyzing these stats, some aspects of how the team would play come to light.
Much of the starting lineup’s entire game-plan would likely run through bully-ball in the paint, with uber-efficient producers such as Harrell and Whiteside on both sides of the game. Teams like the Golden State Warriors would run circles against this lineup, as the five’s perimeter defense is extremely lacking. There would be also be extreme trouble with spacing the floor on offense, as Harrell and Whiteside are paint-hermits, while the other three would probably prefer to coast around the perimeter. If these are the struggles of the this new franchise’s starting unit, then they’re in for a long season, as emphasized by their predicted record.
Conclusion
It would be a terrible mistake to create an expansion team that is comprised of solely free-agents for numerous reasons outside of just general effectiveness. There is a reason why expansion drafts exist, a new NBA team needs NBA-ready athletes in order to hopefully compete, or at least not be the worst team of all time. While this team probably wouldn’t be the most atrocious in NBA history, they’d be pretty darn bad. The logic for why you cannot just buy a super-team to instantly win a championship is the same reasoning for why you cannot just make a new team out of players that have NBA experience. Chemistry and context matters, and in the context that I have presented, this hypothetical team would suck.