Who Won the Donovan Mitchell Trade?

Spoiler alert: it’s not the Jazz.

Full trade: Utah is trading Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland for Lauri Markkanen, Ochair Agbaji, Collin Sexton, three unprotected first-round picks and two pick swaps, sources tell ESPN.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) September 1, 2022

After months of rumors, petty drama and proposed negotiations, Donovan Mitchell is finally departing from Utah… for Cleveland? In the same vein as disgruntled stars like Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, there was a defined list of preferred targets for Mitchell. Such options included the Miami Heat, Brooklyn Nets, Phoenix Suns and most prominently, the New York Knicks. Obviously, none of those transactions came to fruition. What we’re left with is the following exchange:

Cleveland Cavaliers receive: Donovan Mitchell

Utah Jazz receive: Collin Sexton (who signed a 4-year extension as a part of the deal), Lauri Markkanen, Ochai Agbaji, 3 unprotected 1st-round picks and 2 pick swaps

While the deal is not as objectively meaty as the prior Rudy Gobert trade, it certainly has a lot of aspects to break down in order to determine who won the trade.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs now have a projected starting-five of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Caris LeVert, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen. That is three all-stars and a potentially future one. Furthermore, Mitchell is still under contract for the next three years, confirming that this can be a gradual progression, if needed, but I am sure Mitchell would like a win-now approach. O-LEBRON is a statistic that generalizes offensive production in order to evaluate a player, lineup, or team’s output in a stat-based approach. According to Bball Index, a lineup featuring the aforementioned starting 5, with Collin Sexton replacing Mitchell, would result in offensive production ranking around the 81st percentile. Then, place Mitchell back in his starting role and that rating shoots up to almost the 91st percentile. Mitchell acts as the perfect benefactor of a playmaker like Garland, in addition to the fact that Mitchell can facilitate offense on his own as well. To have been able to complete this trade without giving up major prospects is certainly a bonus, but the Cavs understandably had to concede three high-quality picks to compensate for it. Nonetheless, Mitchell’s considerable 7+ contributed win shares last season is enough to make this an amazing investment for the Cavs’ future.

Utah Jazz

While it is totally plausible that the desire for 2023 top-prospect Victor Wembanyama is enough of an incentive to spontaneously combust your own roster, I honestly believe this was a genuine lapse in judgment from Jazz GM, Danny Ainge. According to Shams Charania, the New York Knicks’ last official offer to the Jazz was Evan Fournier, Obi Toppin and 5 first-round picks (2 of which were unprotected). If Ainge genuinely wanted to tank to the fullest degree, a la Sam Presti, he could have accepted this offer and turned Utah into a wasteland of transitioning basketball. Instead, Sexton now has a 4-year, $72 million deal, as arguably the Jazz’s best player, unless you believe Bojan Bodganovic is better off leading the team. This is a contract that seems absurd for a player who’s only real offer was his inaugural team’s $7 million qualifying offer. The Jazz now have his inflated contract, instead of fully calling it a season by taking Fournier’s similarly expensive, but less lengthy, value. Sexton is coming back from a season-ending torn meniscus, and will likely have a massive chip on his shoulder after this disappointing off-season; something you may not want for a team that is clearly rebuilding. There were also rumors of R.J. Barrett and 2 first-round picks being offered for Mitchell from the Knicks, and if Ainge truly wanted to try to stay relatively competitive by rebuilding around a budding star, this is the offer he should have accepted. None of this even considers the absurd precedent set by Rudy Gobert’s deal, that certainly returned more value than Mitchell’s, a player who was supposed to be the cornerstone of Utah’s franchise. Ainge’s perspective was likely warped by his personal rivalry with the New York Knicks from his playing days, but all of this business strikes me as awfully bull-headed.

Winner: Cleveland Cavaliers by a mile

If it isn’t clear enough by my analyses of each team’s haul, I believe that the Cleveland Cavaliers have prepared for their future much more thoroughly than the Utah Jazz have. The Cavaliers over-performed last season, and acquiring Mitchell is a proper way of attempting to capitalize on that momentum. On the other hand, the Jazz shot short of postseason aspirations once again, and also have been dealing with apparent chemistry issues between Gobert and Mitchell since the pandemic started. Rather than committing to one of the two, or by meticulously dispatching their roster, they went one for two in cashing out on their stars. The Jazz have a lot of planning to do and the Cavaliers have a lot of winning to do.